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The US stock market loses $10T

Using PineScript to estimate the SP500 “total market cap”

3 min readApr 8, 2025
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Estimated SP500 market cap

Since the start of the year, the S&P 500 has lost nearly $10T in market cap. Trump is whipsawing global markets with sweeping tariffs, and China is showing early indications it won’t back down in the trade war.

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US versus China GDP

China has seen a remarkable ascent in gross domestic product in recent decades. As a world-historical event, president Trump has started a nuclear economic war with its biggest rival.

China is also the second-largest foreign holder of $750B+ US Treasuries. Over the past year, it has been reducing its US government debt holdings by nearly $40B. The recent tariff escalation could accelerate their liquidation — threatening a cornerstone of the global monetary system.

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At the same time, China has been stacking metric tons of gold as a key reserve alternative. Assuming Fort Knox is intact, however, the US is still the world’s largest gold holder by far.